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The Research Note

Original research on markets, AI, and business.

AI Spending Could Surpass $750 Billion This Year

JPMorgan strategists said AI would take well over half of the roughly $1.5 trillion that S&P 500 companies will spend on buildings and equipment in 2026, and half of $1.5 trillion is $750 billion. No company in the index files a number against which that can be checked.

29 days ago·Artificial Intelligence·5 min read

S&P 500 Profits Surge 50% as Companies Crush Expectations

FactSet puts second quarter growth at 50.4%, the strongest in five years, with 86% of companies beating expectations. Strip out Alphabet and Amazon and the rate is 32.0%, and Alphabet's own filing says $6.26 of its $9.11 came from writing up investments it never sold.

29 days ago·Markets·5 min read

U.S. National Debt Crosses $40 Trillion

The Treasury's daily count of the federal debt came in at just over $40 trillion on 18 August 2026, about $2.90 trillion higher than a year earlier. The interest comparison that arrived with the milestone is right, and dated two years late.

29 days ago·Economics·5 min read

Moderna Stock Explodes 177% on Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough

Moderna's shares nearly tripled on 19 August 2026 and Merck rose with them, adding roughly $86bn of market value between them in a single session. The press release behind the move never says how well the drug actually worked.

29 days ago·Markets·5 min read

Google's AI-Chip Deal With Marvell Could Generate $120 Billion

The filing hands Google the right to buy nearly 59 million Marvell shares, earned in 240 steps of $500 million in sales. The warrant agreement names the accounting question the 8-K leaves out, then carves it back out of the number Google is measured against.

29 days ago·Technology·5 min read

Reference

The AI money map

Every disclosed financial relationship between the companies at the centre of the AI trade, with the filing and the reporting behind each one. Who is investing in whom, who is buying whose chips, and who is guaranteeing whose rent.

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